What would be the killer app ?
If you look back at the evolution of the traditional 2D web, what is it that has become "mainstream" after 10 years ? Mail, search, wikis, blogs and other information oriented stuff aside .. what is it that we do on the web all the time that has an impact on our brick & mortar existence ? Banking ? Online Stock trading ? Buying books ? .. the debate can continue.
Coming to 3D Virtual worlds ... what are the various applications that would become "mainstream" in the next few years ? I am throwing in a few suggestions ... and requesting the community to comment, criticise and throw in their own ideas !
a] [Un]Real Estate : the real estate business lends itself very naturally to this technology. In India, we are going through a massive real estate boom and it makes sense if these developers put up virtual versions of their mega projects and ask their clients and customers to walk through and experience the products ..
b] Amusement Parks : Things like Disney World can be set up very easily in 3D worlds and people should be willing to pay to have their avatars visit these for "rides". While the physical thrill of a roller coaster may be difficult to simulate in the virtual world, games of skill and chance should prove popular ... though i understand that gambling has been banned in Second Life .. some form of entertainment should become very dominant. As technology and bandwidth improves, first MMORPGs and then standard computer games should become available in places like Second Life
c] Movies and Machinima : The making of movies should move almost entirely into virtual worlds ... for more details .. check out http://the-imagineer.blogspot.com/2007/06/machinima-making-movies-in-virtual.html
........................................................
so net-net : I am suggesting Real Estate, Amusement Parks and Movies to be the killer apps .. what do you think ?
Coming to 3D Virtual worlds ... what are the various applications that would become "mainstream" in the next few years ? I am throwing in a few suggestions ... and requesting the community to comment, criticise and throw in their own ideas !
a] [Un]Real Estate : the real estate business lends itself very naturally to this technology. In India, we are going through a massive real estate boom and it makes sense if these developers put up virtual versions of their mega projects and ask their clients and customers to walk through and experience the products ..
b] Amusement Parks : Things like Disney World can be set up very easily in 3D worlds and people should be willing to pay to have their avatars visit these for "rides". While the physical thrill of a roller coaster may be difficult to simulate in the virtual world, games of skill and chance should prove popular ... though i understand that gambling has been banned in Second Life .. some form of entertainment should become very dominant. As technology and bandwidth improves, first MMORPGs and then standard computer games should become available in places like Second Life
c] Movies and Machinima : The making of movies should move almost entirely into virtual worlds ... for more details .. check out http://the-imagineer.blogspot.com/2007/06/machinima-making-movies-in-virtual.html
........................................................
so net-net : I am suggesting Real Estate, Amusement Parks and Movies to be the killer apps .. what do you think ?
Replies to This Discussion
-
Permalink Reply by Ken Rigby (MellaniuM, Tele3DWorld) on
-
Thats been the great question since the 1960's Bill Gates said "nobody will want more than 60KB of Memory".
However, we want levels of detail, we want smart AI, we want real-time physics (animation, etc), we want streaming real-time video, we want to download vast amounts of data, we want multi-user environments say 10 Km x 10 Km , all in parallel as well as virus checking etc. and we want it now.
We need 64bit O/S and software to pre-process all the required information into 3D VRW quickly to reduce production cost and rendering time to minimum. Yes it will still run on lower spec PCs with reduced resolution and frame rates but I suspect users will still demand high quality for real-time shows on the 3D TV.
We will need hi-speed, hi-bandwidth, broadband and synchronous to enable users to host and join VRWs of their choice. Its an incredible future, only limited by human imagination and desire.
-
Permalink Reply by Alex Fedotov on
-
Actually it was around 80 and "...640k" (the first PC). :)
-
-
Jack,
I wish you never to step into the shoes of technologist. :) Available technologies don't give you any competitive advantage. Which means - the one who is able to secure more money for the project - wins inevitably. That's how Microsoft had burned to the ground most part of software business in the past. You do something on MS platform and prove it to be doable? Great! Take your penny and GO! Because MS knows how it works INSIDE and can do EVERYTHING you've done even better, and it has all resources for that (we are not talking about wisdom though :) ). So... basically... if you are going to build a business sustainable at least for a while... you are bound to be on the frontier. That's how it works in reality.
-
-
We used to call it the Bleeding Edge; because you paid the money and the ones behind got the advantage.
However, we are talking about creative content will be king here.
The technology will be supplied from the gameing industry; their demand for fast action in real-time gives the non-games applications plenty of room to use this technology for sensible purpose. The new 3D engines utilize multi-core and programmable graphics cards which can enable an enormous performance advantage.
The demand of a VRW will be on content; so the best producers will make the most. We can all enter the race using commercially available tools.
-
-
Well... please don't think that I disagree, but...
It's more of a movie production IN REAL TIME, what will be 'king', not exactly the 'content'. For instance SL experiment shows that ANY static (or more or less static) content 'burns out' in WEEKS if not days... I'm kinda wondering from time to time - is there enough creativity out there to fill the need? If this 'everything must be free' Internet... mmm... attitude... will continue in 3D (it just can not, it's not sustainable) we'll have what we already have there - square kilometers of a junk-pile... USER CREATED piles of junk 'content' to the horizon in any direction, that's what SL is right now, sorry to say that, it makes me sad every time I see it.
-
-
Everybody agrees that second life is crap but the educationalists who still believe that detail is not necessary. Sl has produced a junk yard of non-transferable object; except from within itself.
We believe that the virtual world should match the real world; see "Virtual Real World" articles.
http://www.goarticles.com/cgi-bin/search.cgi?term=ken+rigby&l=1...
We have databanks of 3D objects that can be converted into any 3D engine and released as an inventory pack for use with standard template maps (not SL). This will allow non geeks to create their content.
see Videos
http://seriousgames.ning.com/video/video/listForContributor?screenN...
http://www.koinup.com/Tele3dworld/works/
I believe education will be in 3D in the future; and it is up to us to record as much information in 3D not just text and images. Digital objects are persistent so they only need making once. e.g. a stadium contains 60,000 seats but in the digital world there is only one.
-
-
I can't agree more.
REUSABLE 3D content. Remember, that was the banner of object-oriented programming once (since graphical UI had become mainstream)? I think it's a close analogy.
You are doing a great job, guys!
-
-
SL is like BASIC was to programming in the 80's; a good intro. ; but totally useless as a serious programming language.
We need a professional 3D engine to be serious about creating 3D environments that will educate and entertain in the future. Real-Time Films, realism in experience, animations to WOW, and simulations that are as near to the real thing as possible.
Recreating the moon shot with a full-scale Saturn and LEM to land on the moon is planned; we need good physics and graphics to get the realism.
-
Permalink Reply by Jack Ryker on -
shoes of the technoglogist? whats that mean? yeah i did step into these shoes,
previous to this, I had no idea what a computer was, and I only knew of one reality.
Someone had to GIVE me my first computer..hah!
NOw, I have several different avatars, all with their own names, and its great because
I can hide behind my screen name, kinda like avoiding looking in the mirror.
Has technology allowed the superman to come out from under the geek
(hey better superman come out in Vr land, than stay hidden,..eh?) 8)
If this world is 3d and the computer is naturally imitatig real 3d world,
then can't we also make the extension that the problems with money
in the real world would also be not so different with the VR world?
Part of the problem with real world money is monopolies and part of the
problem online is a monopoly. Right?
Why not buy from the local coffee house instead of starbucks?
Why not break the monopoly and look to do and encourage business from
smaller firms? Such as mine. I can build web3d in 3dmax.! heheh 8)
-
-
Humans evolved to pick nuts and berries and hunt (hunter gatherers), not to strain reality through text, words, images, concepts, and computers. In many ways, knowledge workers already live in a fantasy world. VRWs herald a more intuitive metaphor for communication and interpretation of our real world.
The industrial-revolution approach to learning put a wall around schools and training departments (remember another brick in the wall). This "protected" the learners from outside interference and distraction. Children were kept at school rather than sent out into the community to communicate and discover 'why' thing are as they are. Workers left work for training and instilled with a strict work ethic to enhance productivity. Talk about artificial life! It's so much more effective to learn from the real thing (3D), and VRWs are the closest we have got for practicing without any customer consequences.
VRWs have evolved into a common ground for bringing everyone in an organization together on the same field and level. Person-to-person interaction can replace the rigid organizational policies. The wonders of interoperability and internet services will pull real-world data into virtual real worlds seamlessly.
Virtual real worlds provide a clean slate for organizational renewal, or work ethic, a transition from the rigid structures and boundaries of the industrial (physical) world to the flexibility and innovation of the knowledge (intangible) world. VRWs will enable social interaction on many issues to ask the question 'why' and foster a more understanding and encourage a higher truth levels of consciousness.
Avatars allow people of any class, creed, sex orientation, disability, age, to contribute to a virtual society without having to conform to dress codes, bearing, etc. which can prevent good participation
-
-
However, we find 3DMax good at creating cartoons rather than the real thing; to get good engineering simulation CAD performs much better for accuracy and can be used to create the real thing as well.
Realism needs detail the brain can spot cartoony designs; see most games.
-
Permalink Reply by Jim Bower on
-
killer ap for virtual worlds is education ---
why? Because properly constructed and managed (the later especially) virtual worlds reflect the natural way our brains process social and spatial informaton and engage in experiential learning. Our brains work in 3-D, and we 'learn with our hands" in 3-D as well. --
We are primates -- killer ap of primates is learning and education in a social setting. It is what we are designed to do. Virtual worlds are something we have created in our own image - and thus -- the killer ap translates.
This was the fundamental motivation and idea underlying whyville -- which was one of (or depending on your definition) the first virtual world -- certainly the first (and still basically only) virtual world with explicit educational underpinnings -- and the above is why.
Importantly, however (also properly constructed) VWs are scalable and universally accessable (of course not if you accept the gaming industries obessesion with graphics -- given the absense of any real variation in content.)
In education -- think of virtual worlds as breaking the 600 year 'broadcast" mode induced by the invention of the printing press and Universities (centralized education) both themselves invented to handle a scalability (and control) problem.
In marketing -- VWs allow 'customers' to interact with the product itself, rather than the brand (another 'invention" fundamentally linked to the passive reception of a broadcast message).
So, another requirement for killer ap is that it generate revenue to sustain the form. Blend marketing and education. link the billions of dollars in marketing, to the billions of dollars in education -- uniquely in virtual worlds -- then, by definition -- this is the killer ap.
However most virtual worlds constructors don't get it yet -- they are still more obsessed with graphics and functionality, some funny sense of random entrapeneurship, rather than organized society, and most marketers remain fixated on broadcast rather than figuring out how to use the other wire (the one from them to you) as the primary wire. Even this discussion is largely framed in something we know (the success of html) rather than an understanding of the beast itself which is us.
But this will change --
Virtual Worlds London
Chat
Loading Chat...
Virtual Worlds News
© 2008 Created by Chris Sherman
